By Jeff Lombardi Jr.
Carlos Correa has been in the middle of the biggest moments of the Astros’ 2019 postseason. For those who’ve been tuned in for its entirety, there are several Correa moments that stick out: his scamper and throw to nab DJ LeMahieu at the plate, which led to his eventual walk-off home run in Game 2 of the ALCS. Or what about his 94.5 mph throw on the back end of a double play in the ALCS clincher? Or his run-saving stab in Game 1 of the World Series.
And while he has those moments to cling to, the Astros are going to need one of the best postseason performers in franchise history to turn it around if they’re going to dig themselves out of an 0-2 series hole and win their second title in the last three years.
Correa is hitting at a .160 clip over his first 13 games this October, logging just four extra-base hits while striking out a whopping 22 times in just 53 plate appearances!
It would be silly to completely rule out a turnaround from Correa over the season’s final few games. As previously mentioned, he is one of the best postseason performers in franchise history –having logged a .860 OPS with 8 HR and 24 RBI in his first 32 career postseason games prior to this season.
But the underlying statistics don’t suggest Correa will suddenly start raking.
Career 2019 — Reg. Season — 2019 Postseason
K-Rate: 20.9% — 23.4% — 41.5%
Chase Rate: 27.6% — 28.2% — 37.4%
BB Rate: 10.8% — 10.9% — 5.7%
Correa saw 4.11 pitches per plate appearance during the regular season. That figure has slipped down to 3.94 during the postseason. Considering that he has struck out or walked in just under half of his plate appearances, that total is alarmingly low.
Correa has been chasing pitches outside of the zone at a 37.4% clip, the fourth highest of any batter who has seen at least 60 pitches outside of the strike zone during the postseason.
Highest Chase Rate 2019 Postseason
Didi Gregorius 46.8%
Marcell Ozuna 41.4%
Gary Sanchez 39.6%
Carlos Correa 37.4%
*Min. 60 pitches out of the zone
Furthermore, his chase rate on fastballs this postseason is 18.7% — fourth highest among hitters who have seen 60 such pitches outside of the zone. Fastballs are the pitch against which Correa typically does the most damage: he slugged .632 (his highest of any pitch) while his whiff rate was just 19.8% (his lowest of any pitch) during the regular season.
Highest Chase Rate on Fastballs 2019 Postseason
Juan Soto 23.3%
Gary Sanchez 20.8%
Jose Altuve 19.0%
Carlos Correa 18.7%
*Min. 60 FB
Besides chasing pitches out of the zone, he’s missing pitches in the zone.
During the regular season, Correa’s .360 batting average and .781 slugging percentage on pitches in the zone were the second-highest on the Astros, behind Yordan Alvarez (.373/.789). Correa has hit just .242 while slugging .485 on such pitches during the postseason.
If the Astros make this a series, don’t be surprised if Correa is a major factor. If they don’t, don’t be surprised if his struggles are a major part of the blame.
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