KENDALL PARK, N.J.- As we continue to welcome the new year, the baseball world also welcomes in my personal favorite topic of discussion; the BBWAA National Baseball Hall of Fame voting ballot. Though many people would say Disney World is the “most magical place on Earth” to me, it is The National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, N.Y. As we are now just one day away from the January 18th announcement I would like to take a closer look at the candidates and reveal what my own Hall of Fame ballot would look like, if I had a vote.
There are 19 players on the 34 man ballot that I would consider for a Hall of Fame vote, but the 10 vote limit obviously makes that impossible. Just because a player does not appear on my ballot this year, doesn’t mean I wouldn’t include them on my ballot next year or even has not received a “vote” in years past. Completing a “perfect ballot” has always been a tall task, even for the most prestigious baseball historians with the most experience in the field. The level of difficulty in voting has significantly increased over the last 10 years with the occurrence of the inevitable; players who played in the Steroid Era, have been accused of using performance enhancing drugs, and even players who have received multiple PED related suspensions during their career.
The ballot has become extremely crowded over the last 5 years with the addition of the “kings” of the Steroid Era: Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds. The way I see it, the 2015 induction on Ken Griffey Jr. and more importantly Mike Piazza will serve as a monumental change of the voter’s perspective on PEDs. In the case of Piazza, the greatest hitting catcher the game has ever seen should have been an undoubted first ballot HOFer, however his PED suspicions held him out until his 4th year of eligibility. Despite missing out on being enshrined with baseball’s highest honor as a first ballot HOFer, the most important thing is he was eventually inducted paving the way for guys like Bonds, Clemens, to a lesser degree Jeff Bagwell, and even for first year eligible Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez.
Before getting into my analysis and HOF ballot there are 3 things I need to point out.
- The consideration of a player with any connection to PEDs– There are some voters hat rule out the inclusion of players that used or are under the suspicion of PED use entirely, while some completely disregard the use of PEDs and look strictly at statistics. I am somewhere in the middle of the spectrum, I look at every player is their own individual case with numerous variables that are different for each player.
- “Specialty players” such as closers and DH- In a similar fashion as players with PED connections, players of these respective positions are treated on a case by case basis. The designated hitter is in fact an everyday position for American League teams and has been since 1973. With that being said, if there is a player that exemplifies greatness as a DH then they deserve to considered. For closers the case by case scenario plays out in such fashion guys like Billy Wagner and Trevor Hoffman need to be looked at more extensively than Mariano Rivera who will be inducted in his first year of eligibility in 2019.
- The eyeball test- in the case of most HOFers you know when you are watching them play that they are destined for Cooperstown. Not every player’s career can be solely measured by statistics. Contrary to popular belief, though I believe it has its place, the sabermetric stat WAR is not the only way to measure a player’s value. I know I sound crazy right now!
One final note: While longevity is considered and is extremely important, just because a certain player may have fallen short of the milestone 3,000 hits/500 home runs or 300 wins/3,000 strikeouts doesn’t mean they are not a HOFer! If they were among the best players at their position for an EXTENDED period of time they should be a HOFer; the HOF is about recognizing the best players from each era.A dominant 10 year peak can be more HOF worthy than a compiler.
I’ll start my analysis and ballot off with the 3 guys that were the closest to enshrinement in 2016, Jeff Bagwell who received 71.6% of the vote, followed by Tim Raines at 69.8% and Trevor Hoffman at 67.3 %.
Jeff Bagwell, 1B, 1991-2005 HOU, 7th Year, 71.6%
Career Stats: .297/.408/.540, 2,314 H, 449 HR, 1,529 RBI, 1,517 R, 202 SB, 149 OPS+, 79.6 WAR
Bagwell is a near lock to finally be inducted into the HOF on his 7th year on the ballot. The only reason he has yet to be inducted is the same as any other player who played during his generation, the potential that they used PEDs. The only link Bagwell has to PEDs are reports that he revealed using androstenedione to a Houston Chronicle reporter in 1998. Without even looking at the numbers, Bagwell is an obvious HOFer. A career .297 hitter with an interesting power/speed skill set, especially for a first baseman. Over the course of his 15 year career, Bagwell slugged 449 home runs and stole 202 bases including two 30/30 seasons in 1997 and 1999.
Tim Raines, LF, 1979-2002 MON, CWS, NYY, OAK, BAL, FLA, 10th Year, 69.8%
Career stats: .294/.385/.425, 2,605 H, 170 HR, 980 RBI, 1,571 R, 808 SB, 123 OPS+, 69.1 WAR
What more can you ask from for a leadoff hitter, other than to be Rickey Henderson himself? On his final year on the ballot it appears the second best leadoff hitter of all-time will FINALLY reach the 75% threshold. Raines was a 7 time all-star with 4 stolen base titles a batting title and a .385 career OBP, not to mention his 808 stolen bases which is good for 5th all-time. (all 4 of the players ahead of him all having been inducted) His 84.7 success rate is the highest all-time for players with a minimum of 400 attempts. It’s ridiculous that I even have to make a case for this guy.
Trevor Hoffman
Though Hoffman would not receive my vote this year, I would vote for him down the line when the ballot cleared up and certain players were not in danger of falling off the ballot. In my opinion he is an obvious Hall of Famer retiring as the all-time saves leader with 601 career saves. Regardless of what comments are made about 1 inning closers, there is an aspect of their game that goes deeper than the stats, the value that a team has in knowing the game is over when their closer enters the game.
The New Guys
Vladimir Guerrero, RF, 1996-2011, MON, LAA, TEX, BAL, 1st Year
Career Stats: .318/.379/.553, 2,590 H, 449 HR, 1,496 RBI, 1,328 R, 181 SB, 140 OPS+, 59.3 WAR
Two Expos in one year? Wouldn’t that be something. Guerrero has the best chance of the players appearing on the ballot for the first time this year. Without even getting into the numbers, he was the best player at his position for an extended period of time, he was an extremely exciting player to watch and most importantly (to some voters) he has no connections to PEDs. His 162 game average of .318/.379/.553 34 HR, 113 RBI, 100 R is the best line by a right-handed hitter in the modern era not named Manny Ramirez. Though he does not have the milestone numbers, it would be a shame if Vlad is not a first ballot HOFer.
Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez, C, 1991-2011, TEX, FLA, DET, NYY, HOU, WSH, 1st Year
Career Stats: .296/.344/.464, 2,844 H, 311 HR, 1,332 RBI, 1,354 R, 127 SB, 106 OPS+, 68.4 WAR
You would think the best defensive catcher of all-time would be a lock to be a first ballot HOFer but that is not necessarily the case with Pudge. Though it is likely he will be inducted, Pudge may be held back by his connections to PEDs. “The incredible shrinking man” was mentioned as a steroid user in teammate Jose Canseco’s book “Juiced” and famously said “Only God knows” when asked if he tested positive during 2003 survey testing. His stats are undoubtedly Hall worthy: 304 home runs as a catcher, good for 5th all-time, the most hits by a catcher all-time with 2,884, 13 Gold Glove Awards which included a stretch of 6 consecutive years that he lead the AL in caught stealing %, 14 all-star nods and an AL MVP Award in 1999. Even if it is somewhere down the line it is confirmed that he used PEDs during his career, his defensive numbers are what makes him a HOFer, and there is less of a chance they would be as dramatically boosted by PEDs his offensive numbers.
Oldies But Goodies
Curt Schilling, SP, 1988-2007, BAL, HOU, PHI, ARI, BOS, 5th Year, 52.3%
Career Stats: 216-146, 3,261 IP, 3,116 K’s, 1.137 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 127 ERA+, 80.7 WAR
The interesting thing about Curt Schilling is while most pitchers at age 34 are starting to put the icing on top of their Hall Fame résumé, Schilling was just getting started. Through the first 13 years of his was a solid pitcher, a 3 time all-star with 110 career wins but was nowhere near HOF worthy. Following a trade by the Philadelphia Phillies that sent Schilling to the Arizona Diamondbacks in July of 2000, Schilling went on to win 106 games over his final 7 seasons including 3 second place Cy Young Award finishes. Schilling’s career mark of 216-146, 3.46 ERA, and 3,116 make him a borderline candidate to some, his post-season “extra credit” that puts him over the top. Schilling became one of the most dominant post-season pitchers in MLB history posting an 11-2 postseason mark with a 2.23 ERA in 19 starts. Schilling was a major part in leading the upstart Diamondbacks to their first World Series title in just their 4th year of existence in 2001 (winning series co-MVP along with 2014 HOF inductee Randy Johnson) Schilling then became known for his “bloody sock” with the Red Sox as he helped end their 86 year World Series curse in 2004 before riding into the sunset with another World Series win in his final season in 2007. Side note: Of the 16 pitchers in MLB history with 3,000 strikeouts ALL of them with the exception of Roger Clemens and Schilling have been inducted.
Edgar Martinez, DH, 1987-2004 SEA, 8th Year, 43.4%
Career Stats: .312/.418/.515, 2,247 H, 309 HR, 1,261 RBI, 1,219 R, 49 SB, 147 OPS+, 68.3 WAR
When you change the way a position is played, you’re generally a HOFer, just a typical rule of thumb. Edgar Martinez was David Ortiz back when Big Papi was still in diapers…wait actually that was me. Edgar Martinez was the one who revolutionized the designated hitter position. It seems that Big Papi will be a lock for the Hall (regardless of any potential PED whispers) when he becomes eligible 5 years down the road so why not Edgar? Martinez may not have had the same power as Big Papi however he did instill the same fear. Over his 18 year career Martinez hit .312 good for 6th best since 1961. If you can justify voting for David Ortiz in 5 years you have to vote Edgar in first. Martinez also had the hit that saved baseball in Seattle during the 1995 ALDS giving the Mariners their first post-season series win in franchise history which would make for a great final sentence on a HOF plaque.
Mike Mussina, SP, 1991-2008, BAL, NYY, 4th Year, 43.0%
Career Stats: 270-153, 3,562 ⅔ IP, 2,813 K’s, 1.192 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 123 ERA+, 82.7 WAR
He never won a Cy Young Award (though he probably should have over Clemens in 2001) , he never threw a no-hitter (though he threw 3 one-hitters), he didn’t win 300 games or have 3,000 strikeouts, and he only won 20 games once, in his final season in 2008, with that being said Mike “Moose” Mussina is a HOFer. Mussina’s career numbers don’t jump out at you, but something has to be said for pitching for 18 years in the AL East, at the height of the steroid era, and demonstrating such consistency over an extended period of time. Despite never winning a Cy Young Award, Mussina had 6 top 5 finishes and made 5 all-star teams while winning 7 gold gloves. Only 5 pitchers in MLB history won as many games as Mussina’s 270 and had a higher winning percentage than his .638. Grover Cleveland Alexander, Christy Mathewson, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Lefty Grove, all of which all HOFers with the exception of Clemens
Fred McGriff, 1B, 1986-2004, TOR, SD, ATL, TB, CHC, LAD, 8th Year, 20.9%
Career Stats: .284/.377/.509, 2,490 H, 493 HR, 1,550 RBI, 1,349 R, 72 SB, 134 OPS+, 52.4 WAR
Again, I cannot believe this guy is still on the ballot. One of the biggest victims of playing “clean” during the Steroid Era. He was clearly one of the best at his position during his era exemplified by his 7 consecutive seasons with 30+ homers from 1988-1994. The only additional numbers I’m going to look at are 493 and 7. 493 the number of home runs “Crime Dog” hit in his career, one of the more prolific sluggers of his generation who presumably played the game “clean.” Seven, the number of home runs Fred McGriff fell short of 500 for his career. Seven. Not to mention McGriff was in the prime of his career when he slugged 34 home runs in just 424 at-bats in the strike shortened season of 1994 Of the 23 HOF eligible players in MLB history to hit 500 home runs, 17 of them have been inducted. The 6 who have not: Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, and Gary Sheffield, all of whom have been connected to PEDs. If the hold up all this time the uncertainty of what team he will represent on his HOF plaque, he sure looks good in an old school Toronto Blue Jays cap as shown above.
Jeff Kent, 2B, 1992-2008, TOR, NYM, CLE, SF, HOU, LAD, 4th Year, 16.6%
Career Stats: .290/.356/.500, 2,461 H, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 1,320 R, 94 SB, 123 OPS+, 55.2 WAR
This is going to be short and sweet. Despite playing a key up the middle position on field, I frankly don’t care about Kent’s poor defensive metrics. Kent is the all-time leader of home runs by a second baseman hitting 355 of his 377 career home runs while playing second base. With the exception of left fielder Barry Bonds and first baseman Mark McGwire every player that is HOF eligible and leads their position in home runs has been inducted. Kent had 6 straight seasons of 100 RBI and had 100 RBI in 8 of 9 seasons from 1997-2005 with the only exception being 93 in 2003. That’s unheard of, especially from a second baseman. Remember, it was Jeff Kent that started the streak of 5 straight NL MVP Awards won by a San Francisco Giant, not Barry Bonds!
Billy Wagner, CP, 1995-2010, HOU, PHI, NYM, BOS, ATL, 2nd Year, 10.5%
Career Stats: 47-40, 422 SV, 903 IP, 1,196 K’s, 0.998 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 187 ERA+, 27.7 WAR
Wagner probably has one of the most interesting cases on this years ballot. Wagner’s 422 saves ranks fifth all-time but doesn’t scream HOFer and neither does throwing just 903 innings over a 16 year career. Despite this, Wagner posses plenty of stats that exemplify how truly dominant he was. His 2.31 career ERA is second to Mariano Rivera all-time among pitchers who have thrown 900 innings. Wagner’s 11.92 K/9 ratio is the best all-time for pitchers with at least 900 innings pitched. Wagner’s final season in 2010 was one of the best of his career as he converted 37 saves and pitched to the tune of a 1.43 ERA with 13.5 K/9 citing that he wanted to spend more time with his family as the reason for his retirement. Who’s to say Wagner couldn’t have stuck around a few more years and reached the 500 save mark? Wagner is in a tough spot. His 10.5% of the vote last year was just enough to keep him off the ballot. If you’re going to vote for Hoffman you have to give strong consideration to Wagner who was simply more dominant. If you were combine the quantity of Hoffman and the quality of Wagner you have the dream closer. His name is Mariano Rivera.
Just Missed
The 7 and 7 Boys- Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens
7 MVP Awards for Bonds, 7 Cy Young Award for Clemens. Major League Baseball’s all-time home run leader with 762, some would say he’s the greatest player they’ve ever seen play. 354 career wins good for 8th all-time, 3rd on the all-time strikeouts list with 4,672. It’s a shame that two of the best players to play the game were not inducted on their first ballot, borderline unanimous decisions. As I mentioned earlier, I look at PED’s on a case to case basis. Unfortunately for Bonds and Clemens they have this tainted label as the “kings” of the Steroid Era. They never failed a test and though many suspect they both started using PEDs around 1999 there is no actual proof. So why vote guys like Bagwell and Pudge but not Bonds and Clemens? I guess the best answer is that they seem less guilty. But really there is no solid evidence behind any of it. At the halfway point of their time on the HOF ballot both Bonds and Clemens should receive more than 50% of the vote, something that was viewed as impossible when they debuted on the ballot just 4 years ago. There is no doubt in my mind and that both will get inducted before their 10 years on the ballot is up, so I’m ok with not voting for either of them…for now.
Jorge Posada
Posada had a great 17 year career in pinstripes winning 5 World Series championships, being a major contributor on 4 of them however just misses my ballot and will likely miss the 5% of the vote needed to stay on the ballot. I had Posada on my original ballot but when comparing him to Billy Wagner, he just didn’t match up. Why would I compare Billy Wagner to Jorge Posada? I was originally voting for both of them for the same reason, to keep them on the ballot. As I looked further into the numbers, Wagner was dominate, Posada turned in several all-star level seasons but was never the best at his position, and that’s disregarding his sub-par rated defense. Debuting on the ballot the same year as one of the greatest catchers not only of his generation, but of all-time in Ivan Rodriguez makes for another tough comparison for Posada. If there was a “Hall of Very Very Good”, Posada and Bernie Williams would fit right in.
Larry Walker
He won a MVP Award, was .313 career hitter with a .400 OBP, hit 383 home runs, stole 230 bases, won 7 Gold Glove Awards, sure sounds like a HOFer. I just couldn’t find a spot for him. If you want to look for the needle in the haystack his home/road Coors Field splits are a bit extreme, a .348 hitter at home, .278 on the road. The biggest against him is his games played. In his 17 year career he only played 150 games in one season (his MVP season in 1997) but played 100 games or less 5 times. After receiving 15.5% of the vote last year, he should garner enough votes to stay on the ballot.
Others Who Could Receive Votes
Lee Smith
He retired as the all-time saves leader with 478 and was on my original ballot, but he received just 34.1 % of the vote and in his 15th and final year on the ballot it seemed like a wasted vote.
Gary Sheffield
He has the numbers, most prominently 509 home runs but he was listed on the 2007 Mitchell Report.
Sammy Sosa
His 10 year peak from 1995-2004 is ridiculous. 479 of his 609 career home runs, 1,226 RBI in that span, and 3 seasons of 50 home runs. How legit are his numbers? We’ll never truly know. Like Pudge Rodriguez, his name was leaked during the 2003 survey testing though it did not identify the drug or source of information. He never failed a test during his career, but he was a one dimensional player which ultimately costs him votes for those who think he used PEDs.
Manny Ramirez
Some say he’s the greatest right-handed hitter ever, however he’s also the first player who failed not one, but two drug tests to appear on the ballot. If he gets higher than the 5% needed to remain on the ballot I would be shocked. But who knows, I’ve seen crazier things in this game.
One Final Thought
As I was looking into the candidates and future eligibles i noticed one odd omission from this years ballot. Javier Vazquez! I’m not saying he is a HOFer or that he would even receive a single vote but generally if you play 10 years you’re on the ballot. Over a 14 year career Vazquez won 165 games, struck out 2,536 hitters, good for 30th all-time, and even made an all-star team. On the bright side, Javier Vazquez would have never made this list had he not missed out on the ballot, so maybe for him it’s a blessing in disguise. My condolences Javier.
The 2017 National Baseball Hall of Fame announcement will be made on Wednesday, January 18th on MLB Network at 6 p.m. For more information and voting results you can visit http://bbwaa.com
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