2016 American League Wild Card Game Preview

October 4, 2016 Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario 8:00 pm TBS

Baltimore Orioles (89-73) @ Toronto Blue Jays (89-73)

Chris Tillman (16-6 3.77) Marcus Stroman (9-10 4.37)

WAYNE, N.J.-The Baltimore Orioles will be getting their second taste of the American League Wild Card Game as they travel north of the border to take on American League East division foe, the Toronto Blue Jays.  The Orioles came away victorious in the inaugural Wild Card game in 2012 defeating the Texas Rangers before falling to the New York Yankees in the ALDS.  After ending their 21 year post-season drought by winning the AL East last season, the Blue Jays are playing October baseball for consecutive years for the first time since the 1992-1993 seasons when they won back-to-back World Series.  Despite both teams having identical records, the Toronto Blue Jays earned the right to host the game by winning the season series between the two teams, winning 10 games to Baltimore’s 9.

How they got here, Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles were in first place in AL East for the majority of the season and had possession (along with the Toronto Blue Jays) of the AL East lead as late as August 15th.  They finished the month of August sputtering, dropping 10 of 16 games before regaining form in the month of September going 17-12 and clinching a postseason berth on the season’s final day

Their offense was lead by a plethora of sluggers that launched a Major League leading 253 home runs.  This is familiar territory for the O’s as they have lead the league in long balls in 3 of the last 4 seasons.  This was also the 4th straight year that an Oriole lead the American League in home runs: Chris Davis did it twice with 53 in 2013 and 47 last season, Nelson Cruz crushed 40 in 2014, and this season newcomer Mark Trumbo clubbed 47 of his own.  Trumbo, who was selected as an all-star in 2016, came to Baltimore in an offseason trade with the Seattle Mariners and immediately found a home; both at Camden Yards and in the middle of the Orioles lineup with a team leading 108 RBI.  The undisputed leader of the birds offense, Manny Machado put his name in the AL MVP conversation by leading the club in batting average (.294), hits (188), runs scored (105) and doubles (40).  Machado added 37 long balls, 96 RBI and played stellar defense at both third base and shortstop as he seeks his 3rd consecutive Gold Glove award (4th overall).  Chris Davis was among the top 10 in the league in home runs with 38 joining Trumbo and Machado to become the first trio in Orioles history to hit 30+ home runs.  Other offensive contributions were made by centerfielder, Adam Jones (29 HR, 83 RBI, 87 R), second baseman Jonathan Schoop (25 HR, 82 RBI, 82 R), catcher Matt Wieters (17 HR, 66 RBI) and left-handed slugger Pedro Alvarez who hit 22 home runs in just 337 at-bats.

The Orioles relied heavily on their top two starters starters, Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman who were the only pitchers on the staff to make 30 starts. Tillman (16-6 3.77 ERA) lead the team in wins with 16, and Gausman leading the team in innings pitched (179 ⅔), strikeouts (174) and ERA (3.61).  The remainder of the starts were contributed mainly by veterans Ubaldo Jimenez (25 starts, 8-12)  and Yovani Gallardo (23 starts, 6-8) and 23 year old Dylan Bundy (10-6 109 ⅔ innings) appeared in 36 games, starting 14 in his well anticipated rookie campaign.  

The recipe to the Orioles success was working the game backwards much like the 2-time defending American League champion, Kansas City Royals.  After an all-star 2015 season the Orioles re-signed “submarine” reliever Darren O’Day who contributed 31 innings (11 K/9) who combined with New Jersey native, Brad Brach and closer Zach Britton to form one of the best bullpens in baseball.  Brach was named to the all-star team as he lead all relievers in WAR at the break. For the season, Brach (24 holds) appeared in a team high 71 games, winning 10 decisions, while striking out 92 batters in 79 innings.  The real show stopper of the team however came in the form of the team’s closer, Zach Britton.  Britton, in his 3rd year as the Orioles closer went a perfect 47 for 47 in save opportunities and is looking to become the first closer to win the Cy Young Award since Eric Gagne who went a perfect 55 for 55 in save opportunities for the Dodgers in 2003.  Britton allowed just 4 earned runs (3 of which were in the month of April) in 67 innings this year resulting in an astonishing ERA of 0.54, the lowest in MLB history for a pitcher who has appeared in a minimum of 50 games.

Zach Britton could become the first relief pitcher to win the Cy Young Award since 2003.  With his 47 “perfect” saves he became the 4th pitcher ever to produce a 40 save season with no blown saves.

How they got here, Toronto Blue Jays: Like their opponent, the Blue Jays had possession of first place in the AL East late into the season (September 5th to be exact).  On September 5th the Jays were 77-60, 1 game ahead of the Boston Red Sox and 2 ahead of the Baltimore Orioles.  Over their final 25 games they went 12-13 as part of a 11-16 September, ultimately losing their division lead, and narrowly hanging on to their spot in the postseason.

Like the Orioles the Blue Jays are built around big name sluggers, the most prominent reigning American League MVP,  Josh Donaldson who failed to disappoint in his second year playing in “The Six.”  Donaldson turned in another MVP caliber season hitting a team high .284 with 37 home runs, 99 RBI and 122 runs scored, matching his total from last season.  Edwin Encarnacion was selected to his third career all-star game and proceeded to tie his career high with 42 home runs previously set in 2010, en route to leading the American League in RBI with 127.  Troy Tulowitzki was able to stay on the field for 131 games, his most since 2011 (143 with COL) and hit 24 long balls while driving in 79 runs, his most since 2013 (82).  Canadian backstop Russell Martin hit 20 home runs and drove in 74 runs in his second year playing in his home country and fellow Canadian Michael Saunders was a first time all-star while hitting a career high 24 home runs.  Despite two DL stints, fan favorite Jose Bautista still managed to make his presence felt by opposing team’s, hitting 22 home runs and drive in 69 runs in just 116 games.

Again like the Orioles the Blue Jays have a Cy Young candidate of their own in J.A. Happ.  After having success in the second half of last season as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Happ signed a 3 year/36 million dollar contract to rejoin the Blue Jays whom he pitched for from 2012-2014.  Happ was signed to be the rotation’s lone left handed starter as former ace, David Price was likely to sign elsewhere.  To the surprise of many Happ actually had a better season that Price did in his new home in Boston.  Happ made 32 starts as the leader of the Jays staff posting a win-loss record of 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA.  His right hand man, 24 year old Aaron Sanchez who started the season as the team’s 5th starter, made 30 starts going 15-2 and even won the American League ERA title on the final day of the season (3.00).  The unlikeliest of combinations; Happ whose previous career high in wins was 12 back in 2009 and even lost as many as 15 games in 2011 and Aaron Sanchez who had made just 11 big league starts before this season became the league’s best 1-2 punch.  The remainder of the rotation consisting of; veteran Marco Estrada (29 starts, 9-9, 3.48 ERA), former Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey (29 starts 10-15 4.46 ERA), and the team’s Opening Day starter Marcus Stroman (32 starts 9-10 4.37 ERA) lead the American League in quality starts (100), starters ERA (3.64), innings pitched (995 ⅓), WHIP (1.22) and were 4th in strikeouts with 842.  The team also acquired former all-star Francisco Liriano from the Pittsburgh Pirates who pitched to the tune of a 1.77 ERA over his final 6 starts and could have an impact should they advance.  Liriano owns a career 3.48 ERA in 4 postseason appearances (3 starts).  The bullpen was manned by second year closer, Roberto Osuna who converted on 36 of his 42 save opportunities in addition to rookie Joe Biagini (67 ⅔ innings 3.06 ERA), longest tenured Blue Jay, southpaw Brett Cecil (11.05 K/9) and midseason acquisition Jason Grilli (21 holds).

The Toronto Blue Jays had the best starting rotation in the American League this year in terms of: quality starts, innings pitched, ERA, WHIP and batting average against.  From left to right: RHP R.A. Dickey, RHP Aaron Sanchez, Pitching Coach Pete Walker, LHP Francisco Liriano, RHP Marcus Stroman, LHP J.A. Happ, RHP Marco Estrada.

What to expect: The game has the makeup to be a slugfest but being that it’s a postseason game I find that to be unlikely.  Unlike the National League Wild Card game that is featuring two of the best pitchers on the planet, this game has the potential to be a typical American League game where both teams, “sit around and wait for a 3-run homer.” I would say that the starting pitching matchup of Chris Tillman and Marcus Stroman is a push.  Both pitchers have had a taste of the postseason before; Tillman with the O’s in 2014 and Stroman last year.  Both pitchers have struggled versus each others teams: Stroman a 7.04 ERA in 4 starts against Baltimore this year and despite going 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA in 4 starts against the Blue Jays this season, Tillman has a career mark of 5-10 with a 5.44 ERA in 24 starts versus the Jays in his career.  I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a scenario like Game 7 of the 2014 World Series where neither starter made it past the 4th inning.  Both pitchers are certainly capable of leading their teams to victory, however I see it more likely that the game is won on the traditional 3-run homer…

X Factors

Baltimore Orioles: Zach Britton

Not going in a completely sabermetric analysis direction of using Britton as a “relief ace”, however I do see using him in an “old school” fashion as a definite possibility.  Before the days of having a relief pitcher for seemingly every role, the best relievers were used for multiple innings at a time; in today’s game that is an “old school” strategy. I don’t see Chris Tillman pitching a complete game as he only has two in his career and has averaged roughly 5 ⅔ innings per start this season.  With that being said, do you want to truly consider Zach Britton’s 2016 season as the greatest of all time by a relief pitcher? Let’s see how he can adjust to pitching more than one inning at a time.  With an “old school” manager like Buck Showalter I would not be surprised if he hadn’t already spoken with Britton about this possibility.  We have seen things like this in the postseason plenty of times but it makes it more special that to this point Britton’s season is perfect.

Toronto Blue Jays: Kevin Pillar & Francisco Liriano?

I picked two here as I always find some way to bend the rules when I do things like this…but hey this is my world, you’re just reading it.  I’ll start with the Blue Jays starting center fielder, Kevin Pillar as I know he’ll at least be in the lineup to prove he has what it takes to be my X-Factor.  I didn’t previously mention Pillar among his other teammates but he’s not someone to overlook.  Pillar played in 146 games this year for the Jays hitting .266 with 7 home runs, 53 RBI, 59 run scored and a team high 14 stolen bases; not typical numbers for a centerfielder.  What is not to be overlooked by Pillar however is his outstanding play in centerfield.  Over the past two years, Kevin Kiermaier of the Tampa Bay Rays is the only player in all of Major League Baseball to have a higher DRS (defensive runs saved) and dWAR (defensive wins above replacement than Pillar.  Again, I’m not a big sabermetric guy but coming from someone who watches the game and doesn’t go purely of statistics, these sabermetric stats are no fluke.  With the way the Orioles can smack the ball around the yard, Pillar could be on his horse all night long.

The Blue Jays went with the 25 year old, electric Marcus Stroman over Francisco Liriano to start their win-or-go-home Wild Card game.  Liriano being an X-Factor obviously only applies if he gets in the game in some sort of relief role.  The obvious being that Liriano last pitched on September 28th so he would be fully rested for a long relief role if needed.  But let’s make things more interesting. Coincidentally, Liriano’s last start on September 28th was against the Orioles where he struck out 10 batters. One of the Orioles biggest sluggers Chris Davis, bats from the left side, along with Michael Bourn, Hyun Soo Kim (who hit a walk-off 2-run home run off Jays closer Roberto Osuna), Matt Wieters is a switch hitter who would be forced to bat from his “weak” side and Pedro Alvarez; a lefty power threat who will likely be coming off the bench.  6 of Liriano’s strikeouts in that game came against arguable Baltimore’s Quartet of sluggers if you will: Manny Machado; twice, Mark Trumbo; twice and Chris Davis and Matt Wieters one a piece.  Maybe Liriano comes into a big spot late in the game in a lefty-lefty matchup.  The only other left hander in the Jays bullpen is Brett Cecil so maybe, just maybe Liriano and his 9.3 K/9 ratio get to make an impact.

The pick: Toronto Blue Jays

Putting their recent struggles aside, I’m going with the Blue Jays on this one just because their team needs it more.  They are the home team and maybe the fans clapping when their pitchers get 2 strikes could be the difference maker…In all seriousness, this could be the last run with the current Blue Jays superstars.  Two of the team’s longest tenured players Edwin Encarnacion ‘09 who will be 34 next season and Jose Bautista ‘08 who is turning 36 later this month are set to become free agents at season’s end.  Bautista has already stated that he will not be giving the Jays any “hometown discount.” Other notable Blue Jays set to become free agents are RHP R.A. Dickey, LHP Brett Cecil, OF Michael Saunders and C Dioner Navarro among others. Not getting too far ahead, but the Blue Jays rotation would fit nicely into a 5 or 7 game series.  Plus a win would set up an intense ALDS rematch from a year ago and who wouldn’t want to see that?

“The bat flip heard ’round the world” Jose Bautista epically flips his bat after launching a 3-run home run against the Texas Rangers in Game 5 of the 2015 ALDS.  The home run gave the Blue Jays a 6-3 lead in the 7th inning and the bat flip became an iconic symbol of Toronto’s first taste of October baseball since 1993.