October 5, 2016 Citi Field, Flushing New York 8:00 pm ESPN
San Francisco Giants (87-75) @ New York Mets (87-75)
Madison Bumgarner (15-9 2.74) Noah Syndergaard (14-9 2.60)
WAYNE, N.J.-The New York Mets will play host for the 5th edition of the National League Wild Card game against the San Francisco Giants. After making their first World Series appearance in 15 years last year, the 2016 Mets became just the second team in franchise history to make the postseason in consecutive years (the other being the 2000 team). The Giants missed out on October baseball last season, however they are looking to win their 4th World Series championship in 7 years (2010, 2012, 2014, 2016?) and keep their “even year streak” in tact. The game will be played at Citi Field as the Mets won the season series 4 games to the Giants 3.
How they got here, San Francisco Giants: After signing one of game’s most prized starting pitchers on the free agent market in Johnny Cueto, plus additional free agent signings of Jeff Samardzija and Denard Span the Giants seemed like a virtual lock for a postseason berth and a quest for their 4th World Series title in 7 years; after all, it is an even year! All was going as planned at the All-Star break as the Giants had the best record in baseball at 57-33. Once play resumed they finished the month of July 4-11 that included a 6 game losing streak to start the second half. The final 2 months of the season saw the Giants limp to the finish with a 27-31 mark. The Giants saved their season by finishing strong going 7-3 over their last 10 games, including a 3 game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers over the season’s final weekend 3 to edge out the St. Louis Cardinals by 1 game.
Johnny Cueto was the mid-season NL Cy Young as he had a 13-1 record with a 2.47 ERA and was selected to start the All-Star Game for the National League. After being knocked around for 3 runs in the mid-summer classic, Cueto pitched to a 4.38 ERA in the month of August winning just 5 of his final 14 starts. Madison Bumgarner had another Cy Young caliber season finishing with a 15-9 mark, a 2.74 ERA good for 4th in the NL among qualifiers and 251 strikeouts (3rd). Jeff Samardzija had a bounce back year lowering his ERA by more than a run while compiling 12 wins in 32 starts in his return to the Senior Circuit. Matt Moore, whom the Giants acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays on the MLB trading deadline turned in wins in 6 of his 12 starts including a stellar performance on the season’s final day to clinch the Giants postseason birth.
From an offensive side of things, The Killer B’s Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford provided the majority of the Giants offensive production. Posey, the team’s lone position player representative at the All-Star Game in San Diego (the others being Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner) hit .288 with 14 home runs and 80 RBI. Belt who is an underrated, well rounded first baseman hit .275 with 17 home runs, 82 RBI and over 100 walks. Brandon Crawford lead the team in RBI with 84 and had 12 round trippers while hitting .275 and playing stellar defense at shortstop. The heart and soul of the team; Hunter Pence spent a large amount of time on the DL limiting him to just over 100 games, but still contributed 13 home runs and 59 RBI.
The undoubted achilles heel of the Giants has been their bullpen, especially their inability to secure the game’s final 3 outs. The team began the season with Santiago Casilla as their closer but he saved just 31 of his 40 chances this season; his 9 blown saves leads all of Major League Baseball. The closer from the 2012 World Champion team, Sergio Romo took over the duties in September collecting 4 saves over the final 2 weeks of the regular season. There have been a whopping NINE Giants relievers that have blown at least one save. Their conversion rate of 59.7% (43/72) is by far the worst in all of Major League Baseball and is responsible for many of the Giant’s losses during their near second half collapse.
The Giants 3 representatives at the All-Star Game this season were featured on the March 28th regional cover of the 2016 Sports Illustrated MLB preview. From left to right: RHP Johnny Cueto, C Buster Posey, LHP Madison Bumgarner.
How they got here, New York Mets: Despite having just 3 less wins than last year’s team, this year’s team has had a completely different “feel” to it. On August 19th with their record sitting 2 games under .500 at 60-62, the Mets were 5.5 out of the National League’s second wild card. Over the final 40 games, they finished 27-13 taking care of business against subpar division foes to secure a consecutive postseason birth.
The 2015 Mets lived off a dominant pitching staff but had an offense that was near pathetic before midseason acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes *que Lion King theme song*. I would not call the 2016 Mets a complete 360 of last years version, however this year it was not solely their pitching staff that lead them to October. The ace of the staff, Matt Harvey struggled through just 18 starts with his last coming on July 4th. Jacob deGrom was having a typical season (7-8, 3.04 ERA) before suffering ulnar nerve damage to his elbow that required surgery, ending his season September 1st. Steven Matz made 22 starts before his sophomore campaign was cut short in August due to a left shoulder impingement in addition to a bone spur in his left elbow that required surgery. All-Stars, Noah Syndergaard and the ageless wonder Bartolo Colon lead the depleted staff with Syndergaard taking the ball a respectable 30 times and a full 33 start slate for Colon. Syndergaard who will get the ball for the win or go home Wild Card game lead the team in ERA (2.60) and strikeouts (218) while finishing 3rd and 4th in those categories among National League qualifiers. Bartolo Colon defied father time yet again pacing the club with 15 wins in his age forty-three season. Rookies Seth Lugo 26, and Robert Gsellman 23, both pitched well down the stretch and will be a part of the postseason rotation should they advance. The bullpen was lead by Jeurys Familia who in his second year in the closer’s role, lead the National League in saves with 51 in addition to breaking the Mets single season franchise record of 43 previously held by Armando Benitez and Familia himself who tied the record last season. In his first full season with the team, Addison Reed carried an immense load working in 80 games to the tune of a 1.97 ERA, 10.55 K/9 and a league leading and franchise single season record breaking 40 holds.
The king of the offense was fan favorite Yoenis Cespedes who re-signed with the club in the offseason and in his first full season as a Met, paced the lineup in home runs (31), RBI (86) and OBP (.354) despite spending time on the DL for a quadricep injury. Second baseman Neil Walker tied a career high in home runs with 23 was a great off-season addition to club via trade, before his season was cut short at the end of August with a herniated disk in his back. One of the more overlooked moves of the off-season was bringing in veteran shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera did not disappoint in his first year in Flushing as he lead the team in hits with 146 and 23 home runs while playing solid defense at shortstop. Shortly after captain, David Wright’s season ended prematurely because of a herniated disk in his neck Jose Reyes made his return to the Big Apple spending most of his time manning the hot corner, while provided an offensive spark. Curtis Granderson added 30 home runs of his own, his most in a season since he clubbed 43 in 2012 with the Yankees.
On August 29, 2016 Yoenis Cespedes launched a walk-off solo home run in the bottom of the 10th inning to give the Mets a 2-1 victory over the Miami Marlins. Coincidentally the fan who caught the ball was dressed in a Simba costume.
What to expect: Citi Field will be rocking with the visiting Giants being well represented. Despite departing from New York more than a half century ago the team left behind its fair share of supporters in the Metropolitan area. The pitching matchup of “MadBum” versus “Thor” is the best matchup the National League Wild Card Game has seen in its 5 year existence. Both teams will rely heavily on their starting pitcher, however if necessary; the Mets have the bullpen advantage. An interesting element that may come into play is Syndergaard’s inability to hold runners on. In 183 ⅓ innings this season, Syndergaard allowed a league leading 48 stolen bases and could be taken advantage of by the likes of veteran outfielders Angel Pagan (15 sb) and Denard Span (12 sb). If experience carries any weight in a one game playoff, the Giants have plenty of it. Their roster is full of players that have won multiple World Series titles including a Wild Card game win back in 2014 behind a dominant pitching performance by, guess who…The last time Madison Bumgarner pitched in a postseason game he threw 5 shutout innings in Game 7 of the 2014 World Series on 2 days rest, single handedly winning the Giants their 3rd World Series championship in 5 years.
X Factors
New York Mets: Jose Reyes
This is not 2006 however the same Jose Reyes who was the Mets offensive catalyst back then and won a batting title with the club in 2011 has made it full circle to help the 2016 version of club. Despite playing in his 14th big league season, Reyes, is just in his age 33 season and in his second Mets tenure he has been the spark that the team needed. Sure he is not the same player he once was but I like him in this matchup as a switch hitter (batting right handed) despite facing one of the game’s best left handed pitchers in Madison Bumgarner. Granted a small sample size, Reyes has success against Bumgarner in his career, collecting 3 hits in 9 at-bats. Maybe it is on the basepaths where Reyes becomes the “X factor.” Despite having just 9 stolen bases this year, Reyes has nearly 500 for his career. He could make his mark swipe a key bag late alla Dave Roberts or even going first to third on a single to set up a big inning.
Mets infielders Jose Reyes (left) and Asdrubal Cabrera (right) were the first members of the team to bleach their hair blonde. The “Slim Shady” look has been the Mets rally cry during their postseason push.
San Francisco Giants: Bullpen
If I was going to pick one player to be the Giants “X factor” it would be Madison Bumgarner, who could single handedly win this game. Bumgarner would be too obvious of a selection so I went for “X factor by committee.” As I mentioned earlier the Giants bullpen has been nothing short of awful in 2016. This could be an interesting scenario in a one game playoff. The Giants are hoping they don’t have to use their bullpen and their big lefty carries them one step closer to the promise land (as he did in the 2014 Wild Card game). If that’s not the case, it becomes all hands on deck. Is there a scenario where a starting pitcher makes an extended relief appearance? Despite their poor season, the one thing the Giants relievers have in their favor is post-season experience. Current closer Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla and southpaw Javy Lopez were all members of the 2010, 2012 and 2014 World Series winning teams. Fireballer, Hunter Strickland was a member of the 2014 championship team. The earlier Mets hitters are able to work Madison Bumgarner’s pitch count over 100, the earlier the Giants bullpen has to come into the game, and the more opportunity there will be for a GIANT disaster.
The Pick: San Francisco Giants
In a win or go home game I don’t think pitch count will be much of a factor on both sides. With that being said the San Francisco Giants will ride Madison Bumgarner yet again for another post-season victory. If the Giants bullpen is forced to come into the game, maybe all the stars in the sky will align just for this one night. Bumgarner will undoubtedly go down as one of, if not the single greatest post-season pitcher of all-time. It’s tough to pick against that.
Madison Bumgarner celebrates with catcher Buster Posey after pitching the final 5 innings of Game 7 of the 2014 World Series against the Kansas City Royals. Bumgarner was named World Series MVP and the win was the duo’s 3rd World Series championship in 5 years.
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